Friday, February 02, 2007

Information Super Traffic Jam? 

Phil Kerpen has an article on yesterday starting with the following paragraph:

WASHINGTON, D.C. - A new assessment from Deloitte & Touche predicts that global traffic will exceed the Internet's capacity as soon as this year. Why? The rapid growth in the number of global Internet users, combined with the rise of online video services and the lack of investment in new infrastructure. If Deloitte's predictions are accurate, the traffic on many Internet backbones could slow to a crawl this year absent substantial new infrastructure investments and deployment. . .

Huh? I cannot believe this.

Who is predicting this? Deloitte & Touche? or Phil Kerpen?

As Kevin Werbach points out:

So, if you actually read the Deloitte & Touche "study", which is here, you discover that it's **one page** of pretty summary conclusions.

Not one page of executive summary; the entire relevant discussion on "reaching the limits of cyberspace" is a single page in one volume of their 2007 tech trends report.

And if you read that one page, you find that the only source for the claim that backbones are reaching capacity is a piece from CNET in March.

That's a relatively unremarkable article talking about the demand that growing video traffic places on the network. It talks about ISP traffic shaping and distributed caching being promoted in response.

There's nothing in there about network neutrality. In fact, the very next page of the Deloitte and Touche report is about "The net neutrality debate needs resolution," but it's a completely separate article. And the conclusion is: "Both arguments [for and against net neutrality] have merit; both have their flaws." Not exactly the conclusion that the Forbes column drew from the report.

Or as Vint Cerf said: this article must have been commissioned by the RBOCs.

Ah yes, and Tuvalu is going under because of Global Warming.

well friend, advanced networks cost billions of dollars to deploy and need to generate predictable revenue to make business sense. The infrastructure companies are unanimous in their belief that offering premium services with guaranteed bandwidth will be necessary for them to justify their investments.

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