Friday, December 09, 2005

IMS: Silver Bullet or Poisoned Chalice? 

Discussions on IMS seem now to get very sophisticated and literate. E.g in Lightreading's IMS: A Poisoned Chalice reporting from their conference:

The current world order in the telecom world is under threat, with the carriers under pressure from the online upstarts and vendors in danger of being usurped by more traditional IT firms, attendees at the IMS: Blueprint for an Applications Revolution conference in London heard today.

Telecom operators are being bypassed by the new breed of service providers, such as Google (Nasdaq: GOOG - message board), Skype Technologies SA, Vonage Holdings Corp., and Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO - message board) -- the "Four Horsemen of the IP Apocalypse," noted conference moderator and Heavy Reading senior analyst Graham Finnie.

Four Horsemen of the IP Apocalypse? Apocalypse Now? Graham must have seen one of Rich Shockey's forward looking presentations ;-)

But Poisoned Chalice? Chalice? Chalice? This reminds of one of the best and funniest movies I have ever seen (maybe because it was one of the first I saw) - The Court Jester with Danny Kaye:

Here the full sequence from (god bless) Wikipedia:
Hubert: I've got it! The pellet with the poison's in the vessel with the pestle; the chalice from the palace has the brew that is true! Right?
Griselda: ...but there's been a change: they broke the chalice from the palace...
Hubert: They broke the chalice from the palace?
Griselda: ...and replaced it. With a flagon.
Hubert: A flagon?
Griselda: With the figure of a dragon.
Hubert: Flagon with a dragon.
Griselda: Right.
Hubert: ...but did you put the pellet with the poison in the vessel with the pestle?
Griselda: No! The pellet with the poison's in the flagon with the dragon! The vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true!
Hubert: The pellet with the poison's in the flagon with the dragon the vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true.
Griselda: Just remember that!
Now I finally know why the discussions in ETSI TISPAN on IMS simulation and emulation sound so familiar to me ;-)

Anyway, I am sorry I missed this conference, it seem to be a lot of fun, there is another gem on IMS by the keynote speaker Malcom Wardlaw from BT:

While it's primarily been the familiar names in the frame to land carrier IMS system deals, that could easily change over the coming five years or so, stated keynote speaker Malcolm Wardlaw, vice president of Mobility, Intelligence & Applications at BT Group plc (NYSE: BT - message board; London: BTA).

Wardlaw is one of the U.K. carrier's key executives in the development of its next generation network, the 21CN, and a big IMS fan. "IMS is a fantastic architecture that will allow us to make some major steps and create new services and experiences for our customers," he told the 150 conference delegates. (See BT Calls for IMS Support.)

He thinks IMS technical capabilities will initially arise from telecom vendors. However, over time more new ideas and capabilities are likely to come from the major IT vendors, startups, and new wave vendors. "I wonder if the market will move more towards the Sony Corp.s of this world, rather than the dominant telecom players of today," which, he claimed, "have been a bit slow in bringing [IMS technologies] to market."

Despite that warning shot, Wardlaw expects that the first wave of IMS-based services -- most likely developed for the corporate rather than consumer market -- would likely be developed by the incumbent telecom system suppliers, while new, independent applications developers to come into play in the development of consumer-focused services.

Now, though, "We need to move on from the wide-eyedness and figure out how we are going to implement IMS. That's a major challenge for us and for the traditional telecom supply chain," said the BT man.

That's what he said. Huh?

Once again:

Wardlaw is one of the U.K. carrier's key executives in the development of its next generation network, the 21CN, and a big IMS fan. "IMS is a fantastic architecture ...

21CN? IMS? As far as I know, the 21CN is NOT IMS.

So is he now talking about BT's 21CN 2.0? Another re-design?

But he is wondering himself what he is saying:

"I wonder if the market will move more towards the Sony Corp.s of this world, rather than the dominant telecom players of today," which, he claimed, "have been a bit slow in bringing [IMS technologies] to market."

Sony? The fifth horseman? Is he also reading Terry Pratchett?

Resumee:

IMS will be a silver bullet for the business as it is VoIP now, at least for hotels, travelling agents, carriers (aviation) and last, but not least, conference organizers - ask Jeff.


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